NHL Picks, Thu 1/9. This season: + $12 747 (224-180-40)

[Mathemagician]

Today’s investments:

Edmonton ML +100 / estimate -139 / wager $300
Ottawa ML -115 / estimate -147 / wager $300
Montreal ML -222 / estimate -278 / wager $300

SJ - StL Over 5 -146 / estimate -200 / wager $100
LA - Edm Over 5 +108 / estimate -115 / wager $100
NYI - Phi Under 5.5 -138 / estimate -200 / wager $100


Click here for Mathemagician’s detailed track record and more information for NHL 2002-2003

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Mathemagician’s analysis is based on many years experience of odds making in NHL and other sports. Methods used in odds making process include careful pre-season analysis, continuous measuring of each teams abilities using power ratings and considering the daily news in each individual game.

The pre-season analysis includes mathematical and statistical analysis and determination of the changes caused by the transactions. The power rating database is always updated after each game and every published estimate is adjusted to consider injuries, fatigue caused by the schedule, different motivations and many other factors.

The pick is profitable in the long run only if the current price is higher than the estimate. Otherwise the bet is not worth placing.

 

spoke to a wise guy about your laying juice. he maintains that if you ARE laying juice, you SHOULD be betting MORE on the favorites, not just standard amount. is he right? (by the way, laying -220 w/montreal team which hasnt won in L6? i think this is where a PERSON should step in and override your computer...)

bb

 

the big difference: suppose i make the edmonton/los angeles total 4.5un25 and LOVE the under and maybe my works shows that if they play the game ten times it goes under seven. but since the ONLY price i can lay is 5.0u40, that means i PASS. i throw many games out (as do most sharp bettors) when the prices are un-playable REGARDLESS of what i make the number OR the expectations based on my work. im just humble enough to admit you are far smarter than myself; however, im also just arrogant enough to admit that you still need to learn how to bet...

if it means anything a sharp buddy whose opinion i respect went to your site and says there are some good things there. i take that also to mean its got some potential and will check it out -

bb

 

[ScoobySnacks+]

Magician,

Just wondering if that 114.7 % ROI is accurate? That seems astoninishing to me, if it is continued winnings bud!

GL

 

[Mathemagician]

It is smart to bet more than the average amount when betting favourites and
laying prices. But the analogy applies to all prices (not just laying
juice). It's wise to bet more on -125 than on +125, and it's equally wise to
bet more on +125 than on +175 and so on. It would be very artificial to
differentiate only laying prices from taking the underdogs.

It is just the simplicity of the flat stakes in my track records that made me choose to do it
that way. Not because I wouldn't understand how to get even better results
with more sophisticated money management.

Thank you for your opinions about my site. I respect your comments.

 

[Mathemagician]

The ROI is correct. But I admit that this season has been even better than I expected. In the long run I would expect the ROI to be around 110%, not 115%.

 

[jaypaw]

I know it is early but why does everyone like Boston? Thornoton is in the hospital, Zaumner is out, and Samsonov is out too...

Who is gonna pick up the slack? Lapoint? Maybe... Likely?

 

thanks for response. youve handled my queries in classy manner. i just wish i could get you to dump those favorites! have few questions, could you send email to bobbybryde@aol.com?
thanks.

bb